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☆ China's annual exports drop for the first time in seven years
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Aly Song | ReutersBEIJING — China's annual exports fell for the first time in seven years in 2023, even as shipments in December beat expectations, customs data showed Friday. But for 2023, exports fell 4.6%, the first such annual drop since a 7.7% decline in 2016, according to Wind Information. By country, the U.S. remained China's largest trading partner. Russia was a rare bright spot, with China's exports to the country climbing nearly 47% in 2023, and imports rising almost 13%. China's exports in most product categories fell in 2023, with machinery, boats and home appliances among the few exceptions.

Persons: Aly Song, Caixin, Larry Hu, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Reuters, Information, of Southeast, Nations, European Union, U.S ., China, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Yangshan, Shanghai, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Russia

☆ China's property sector needs more government support as crisis deepens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's property market, which makes up a substantial chunk of the country's economy, needs more government support to prevent it from deteriorating further, analysts said. UBS analysts estimated that real estate and related sectors now account for about 22% of China's gross domestic product, down from around 25% levels seen in recent years. However, real estate behemoth Country Garden still ended up defaulting on a U.S. dollar bond last month, according to Bloomberg News. "China's property sector has yet to bottom out," the report said. "Markets appear to have been a bit too optimistic about the property stimulus policies over the past two months."

Persons: Qilai Shen, Larry Hu, Nomura Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, Macquarie, UBS, U.S, Bloomberg News, Developers Locations: Nanchuan, Xining, Qinghai province, China, Beijing

☆ Why China's 1 trillion yuan debt plan isn't necessarily such a big deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Kim Kyung-Hoon | ReutersBEIJING — Chinese authorities late Tuesday announced one of the biggest changes to the national budget in years, along with the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ($137 billion) in government bonds. Chinese state media said the 1 trillion yuan in central government issuance is set to be transferred to local governments in two parts, half for this year and half for next year. "It is roughly around 5% of transfer revenues or 2% of total revenues for the local governments," Yin said. "Note a special program has already been started since October, allowing local governments to issue special refinancing bonds to swap their outstanding hidden debt. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated the early issuance could be as much as 2.7 trillion yuan, based on prior government practice.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Hoon, Larry Hu, it's, Ting Lu, Yin, Nomura's Lu, Ricky Tsang, they're, Tsang, —, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie's Hu, It's Organizations: Reuters, Macquarie, Monetary Fund, People's Bank of Locations: Beijing, Reuters BEIJING, China, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China

☆ China signals more support for real estate with a 'big change' in tone
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Construction on a real estate project in Yantai, Shandong province, gets under way on July 8, 2023. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support. The statement reflects a "much clearer understanding about the seriousness of the situation," said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR. He expects policies beneficial to the real estate market and consumption will come out in coming days. So far, the biggest real estate policy change has been this month's extension of measures to support developers, which were first revealed in November.

Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Qin Gang, Ricky Tsang, China's, Tsang, It's, Zong Liang, Zong, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, CNBC, Macquarie, People's Bank of China, Qin, Seng Property Development, National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of China Locations: Yantai, Shandong province, BEIJING, China

Hong Kong CNN —China has promised to throw its weight behind private businesses, just days after a slew of economic data showed growth momentum had slumped. The measures include promises to break down barriers to market access for private firms, to “fully implement” a system of fair competition and to strengthen enforcement of anti-monopoly laws. “We believe that the … pivot from the top level is real, but it’s not enough to bring back the animal spirit among private companies,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, wrote in a research note. That pledge had marked a major shift from leader Xi Jinping’s years-long effort to rein in private businesses, which were perceived as too powerful and disorderly. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed 0.7% higher, after falling in several previous trading sessions.

Persons: “, Larry Hu, Xi Jinping’s, Premier Li Qiang, Li, ”, Ma, Lei Jun Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, State Council, Macquarie Group, ”, Investment, Premier, Alibaba, Tencent, Nasdaq, Dragon Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, New York, Dragon China, Shanghai

☆ China extends some policies to support its troubled property market
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —China has extended some policies to bolster its ailing property market, as the country struggles to reignite economic growth. Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, wrote in a research note that the extension of policies on two types of loans were meant to encourage commercial banks to increase their exposure to the property sector. “[This] move will help restore confidence and bring much-needed liquidity into the property supply chain, with beneficial effects on short-term confidence,” he said. The property market is still in the midst of a historic downturn. To bolster growth, the People’s Bank of China cut its main benchmark lending rates in June for the first time in 10 months.

Persons: Larry Hu, ”, ” Stephen Innes Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Financial Regulatory Administration, Macquarie Group, Management, Beijing, People’s Bank of China Locations: Hong Kong, China, China’s

☆ China cuts medium-term lending rate as youth unemployment hits new record high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The People’s Bank of China lowered its key policy rate — the medium-term lending rate — from 2.75% to 2.65%. It was the first such rate reduction since last August, and largely expected following a surprise cut by the central bank Tuesday to China’s seven-day reverse repo rate. The trimming of the repo rate — also by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% — marked its first since August. Urban youth unemployment — already at record levels — hit another new high in May, reaching 20.8%. “They need [economic] growth.”The youth unemployment rate could get even worse when a record 11.6 million college students enter the job market this summer, as estimated by the education ministry earlier this year.

Persons: —, Jamie Dimon, “, ”, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of, Urban, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: Hong Kong, China, People’s Bank of China, China’s

☆ China central bank seen cutting medium-term policy rate: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is widely expected to cut the borrowing cost of medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, after it lowered two key short-term policy rates, a Reuters poll showed. China remains an outlier among global central banks as it loosens monetary policy to shore up a stalling recovery but further rate cuts will widen the yield gap with U.S. assets and risk greater outflows. The MLF rate serves as a guide to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), and markets usually use the medium-term rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmark. Looking ahead, we expect another 10bp cut in the MLF rate in 3Q23." The PBOC last cut the MLF rate in August 2022 to prop up the broad economy disrupted by stringent zero-COVID measures.

Persons: Ting Lu, Larry Hu, Wu Fang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Nomura, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, lockstep

☆ China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate will drop to 1.9% from 2%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The rate cut reveals “growing concerns among policymakers” about the health of China’s recovery, Capital Economics analysts said on Tuesday. “The … rate cut came earlier and sharper than our and market expectations, highlighting the sense of urgency to alleviate economic momentum and business confidence,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. That rate cut also came as a surprise and followed a week of turmoil in global financial markets triggered by the failure of some regional US banks. In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.

Persons: ”, Becky Liu, Zhaopeng Xing, Betty Wang, Yi Gang, Larry Hu, “ Governor Yi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, PMI, ANZ Research, Macquarie Group, “ Locations: Hong Kong, China

☆ China, Its Economy Flagging, Prods Consumers to Save Less and Spend More
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Daisuke Wakabayashi | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Why It MattersA reduction in the deposit rates is one lever that policymakers can use to stimulate spending. The hope is that the lower rates will give consumers an incentive to spend or invest money instead of parking their savings in the bank. After China scrapped its Covid restrictions late last year and reopened the economy, there were expectations that pent-up demand would push consumers to start spending freely — but that has not played out in many sectors of the economy. In the first three months of the year, China’s economy grew at 4.5 percent, helped by a pickup in spending on dining out and luxury goods. Betty Rui Wang, senior China economist at the Australia-based bank ANZ, said confidence in the economy is weak across Chinese households and private-sector businesses.

Persons: Larry Hu, Betty Rui Wang, “, ”, Wang, Li You Organizations: China, Macquarie Group, People’s Bank of China, ANZ, Communist, Commerce Locations: China, Australia, Beijing

☆ Is China heading for Japan-like stagnation? Economist says the worst is likely behind us
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jade Gao | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's economic recovery from the pandemic is set to broaden, meaning the country isn't headed toward Japan-style stagnation just yet, according to Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu. The meeting, led by Premier Li Qiang, noted the foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid. Similar, but not the same as, Japan"While the worst is behind us, the recovery is far from being self-sustaining," Macquarie's Hu said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon iShares MSCI China ETF"The absence of a self-sustained recovery in China today is mainly a cyclical, not structural, phenomenon," Hu said. The iShares MSCI China ETF is down by about 4% so far this year.

Persons: Jade Gao, Larry Hu, Hu, Macquarie, China's, Premier Li Qiang, Macquarie's Hu, Japan's Organizations: Afp, Getty, BEIJING, China, State Council, Premier, Companies Locations: Beijing, Japan, China

[1/7] Farmer Wang Zhanling sits next to his wife in their house in Quansheng village, Heilongjiang Province, China, February 8, 2023. The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences sees the pension system running out of money by 2035. "If the pension system does not change, this is unsustainable," said Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow in the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University in Australia. The province has the lowest birth rate in China, with just over 100,000 births in 2021 and 460,000 deaths. Many experts, including Macquarie's chief China economist Larry Hu, suggest implementing a unified national pension system, backstopped by the more resourceful central government rather than cash-strapped local administrations.

☆ China growth seen rebounding to 4.9% in 2023, more stimulus on the cards: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We expect economic activities and consumption to rebound strongly from March-April onwards, helped by post-COVID re-opening and release of excess savings," Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, said in a research note. Reuters GraphicsThe expected 2022 growth rate would be far below the official target of around of 5.5%. China is likely to aim for economic growth of at least 5% in 2023 to keep a lid on unemployment, policy sources said. "Economic policy would turn more supportive in 2023. Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.

☆ Hedge funds are aggressively buying Chinese stocks, betting on a deeper, but shorter Covid setback
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since the start of November, hedge funds have been consistent net buyers of China equities for eight of the past 10 weeks, according to data from Morgan Stanley. After witnessing the massive rebound from the pandemic low in U.S. stocks, hedge funds are betting that the same scenario will play out in China as it tries to return to a pre-pandemic "normal" after ending most Zero Covid controls. Since November, 80% of hedge fund buying activity has come from hedge funds adding long positions in China, while 20% was from short covering, Morgan Stanley said. Investors getting in early on the trade are betting that China's economy will suffer a deeper — albeit shorter —setback. "Such a dramatic U-turn then implies deeper economic contraction in 4Q22 but also faster reopening and recovery in 2023."

☆ China's big cities are starting to look past Covid, while rural areas brace for infections
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Subway passenger traffic in Shanghai is quickly returning to levels seen before the latest Covid wave, according to Wind data. Subway and road data show traffic in major cities is rebounding, he pointed out, indicating the worst of the latest Covid wave has passed. "The dramatic U-turn in China's Covid policy since mid-Nov implies deeper short-term economic contraction but faster reopening and recovery," Hu said in a report Wednesday. In the last several days, the southern city of Guangzhou and the tourist destination of Sanya said they'd passed the peak of the Covid wave. watch nowChongqing was the most congested city in mainland China during Thursday morning's rush hour, according to Baidu traffic data.

☆ China might not make major changes to its Covid policy any time soon, despite weekend protests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A couple pass necessities over a Covid lockdown barrier in Guangzhou city on Nov. 17, 2022. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China won't likely make major changes to its Covid policy in the near future despite this weekend's protests, analysts said. Groups of people in China took to the streets over the weekend to vent their frustration, built up over nearly three years of stringent Covid controls. Separately, the People's Daily ran a front page op-ed Monday on the need to make Covid controls more targeted and effective, while removing those that should be removed. He noted how it was no longer sustainable for China's economy and society to accept continued Covid controls.

☆ China may have 'passed the point of no return' as Covid infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING — Surging Covid infections across mainland China make it harder for the government to achieve zero-Covid without reverting to a harsh lockdown, Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu said. Larry Hu Chief China economist, Macquarie“China might have already passed the point of no return, as it's unlikely to achieve zero Covid again without another Shanghai-style hard lockdown," Hu said in a report Tuesday. flatten the curve, by tightening the Covid controls for the time being." He said Vietnam's unwinding of its Covid restrictions since fall last year could shed light on the path forward for China. Covid controls tighten in Beijing

☆ China's real estate crisis could be over with new rescue plan. Property stocks are soaring
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —Chinese authorities are making their biggest effort yet to end a crisis in the country’s vast real estate sector that has weighed heavily on the economy over the past year. Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS, described the package of measures as a “turning point” for China’s property sector. Along with other policies announced earlier this year, it could inject more than 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) into real estate, she estimated. In October, sales by the 100 biggest real estate developers contracted 26.5% from a year ago, according to a private survey by China Index Academy, a top real estate research firm. “Beijing’s zero-Covid strategy, despite some latest fine tuning, will continue to weigh on the property sector,” they added.

“My forecast is for a further decline of 1.2% [on a quarterly basis for China’s GDP]. China’s GDP declined 2.6% in the second quarter from the previous one, reversing a 1.4% growth in the January-to-March period. Economists polled by Reuters have expected China’s GDP to expand by 3.4% in the third quarter from a year earlier. Many international organizations, including the IMF and World Bank, have recently downgraded China’s GDP growth forecasts for this year. Bennett expected the third-quarter GDP data to be released after the Party Congress.

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